Don’t confuse genius with Bull market

Come a bull market and everything rises. One look at the portfolio gives us a feel of elation, followed by a few satisfied grunts, some pats on our own back, that in addition to our heavy work routines we have successfully used our latent genius to make a significant impact on our wealth. 

This high carries on into the office tea conversations, as also into late evening parties. Everyone is cheerful and all endings are happy.

Not to be left behind even the ladies at kitty parties are in full swing. After sharing a few success stories even start vending advise. 

The next buys slowly come in via these routes. 

Somewhere the wheel turns, blame it on an ill timed political move, some tightening here or there, a president falling sick or some strike in a far off land, whatever, but then the selling starts, in bits which later graduates into a torrent. 

The Kitty party buys you intended to hold only thus long slowly turn into real long term investments.

That’s when the popular Warren Buffett quote comes to mind " Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked".

Thus , whenever doing an honest assessment of one’s potential especially in the investing field or even in your respective businesses, always discount the wind behind your sails. 

To have repeated success we should bring greater objectivity to the table. It will ensure we smoothen the flukes and put the right amount of focus on our strengths as also on the areas of potential improvements.

This rigor of structured analyses leads to wealth not a temporary rise which will soon settle or change course.

Posted on September 14, 2013 and filed under Equities.

Guru Speak !

The danger of reading financial & other news is that things that don’t make sense at all start making sense to you after progressive immersion.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Posted on September 13, 2013 and filed under Guru.

Profound wisdom favoring Long Term Equity Investing !

All those who invest in the stock market should remember & understand these lines -

In the 20th century, the United States endured 

- two world wars and 

- other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; 

- the Depression; 

- a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; 

- oil shocks; 

- a flu epidemic; 

- and the resignation of a disgraced president. 

Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

Warren Buffett 

and is 15,300 as i write this post ....

If anyone comes around and gives you another Doomsday forecast ...plenty ...just tell them to take a hike .....

Of course the story is being STOCK SELECTIVE instead of a general rise which we experienced earlier due to structural adjustments ..so you need to work hard for that ..but nothing comes easy ....not as easy as the pink papers want it to sound !

there still will be phases of a general rise ...of course but for superior returns you will have to work harder !

cheers !

 

Posted on September 13, 2013 and filed under Equities.

Follow norms or forfeit licence : Sebi to MCX-SX

What a climb down for Jignesh Shah, the rock star of Private & listed exchanges in India ....

who ever thought this trail blazer promoter of FTIL who 

- beat NCDEX with significant volumes via MCX

- organised a battery of exchanges in India & Abroad - Gold exchange Dubai & others in Mauritius, South east asia etc 

- won against another giant the NSE

would have allowed or had poor controls to prevent abuse for such a fraud to take place at NSEL 

maybe its a case of not so deep pockets establishing something on a super Mega scale ?

i am sure stage is being set to subject them to " Fit & Proper " tests and may even one day have to relinquish the control of these exchanges

Though Honesty is a pre requisite everywhere BUT its a MUST even in perception in an exchange business !

 

Posted on September 13, 2013 .

A note on the Speech of the incoming RBI - Raghuram Rajan

Though its largely a story of hopes as yet....but a confidence generating start. The moves outlined are good too ...more important ones to follow 

His speech, coverage , fresh ideas and talk of transparency and predictability were confidence boosting & the markets moved up decent..banks huge...rupee strengthened a bit !

the take aways that give me confidence are -

- he didn't start on the back foot..rather with confidence on the front

- he emphasized the importance of : transparency and predictability in difficult times while keep the door open for any call..this is significant

- he tackled some imp structural issues and also refrained to take big bang steps on monetary policy in the first speech...thats being mature

- developing banking , its reach, inclusion of entrenched foreign banks etc

- he covered banking licenses...will be given soon and 

- they involve developing fin markets, easing money supply, addressing credit, recoveries, 

- Interesting Rupee internationalisation 

- incentives to banks for credit & FCNR till 30 nov 2013 ..should see good inflow in short run

- in the same breath he also questioned why owners should be in control where organization mismanaged & loss making 

organizations will not be allowed to capitalize via banks 

- in my opinion, FT should also get worried re NSEL & even MCX later on..having mismanaged one...they may most likely lose them

- Exploring Mobile payments big time as increase increase white / 3rd party ATMs for great reach...

the closing paras were very interesting ..

1..... short term time table for the Reserve Bank. It involves considerable change, and change is risky. But as India develops, not changing is even riskier. We have to keep what is good about our system, of which there is a tremendous amount, even while acting differently where warranted. The RBI has always changed when needed, not following the latest fad, but doing what is necessary.....

2. Finally, a personal note: Any entrant to the central bank governorship probably starts at the height of their popularity. Some of the actions I take will not be popular. 

The Governorship of the Central Bank is not meant to win one votes or Facebook “likes”. But I hope to do the right thing, no matter what the criticism, even while looking to learn from the criticism

All the best Guv !!

 

Posted on September 13, 2013 .